Wednesday, November 12, 2014

2014-15 College Basketball Preview

Per usual, my annual college basketball preview.  Every year I try to tweak the format in order to be more concise and interesting for the casual basketball fan.  So enjoy.

TOP CONTENDER FOR THE NATIONAL TITLE

Wisconsin Badgers (#3) - While Wisconsin is consistently ranked outside of the top 2 by most polls and rankings lists, I like the Badgers to cut down the net in March.  Bo Ryan is one of the very best coaches in America and now he has legitimate NBA talent and Final Four experience to work with.  Usually the biggest questions facing teams have to do with the supporting cast.  For the Badgers, the biggest questions pertain to their two best players.  Will center Frank Kaminsky play at the same level he did in his final two games last season?  And is the summer buzz surrounding Sam Dekker legit?  If so, Wisconsin probably has the best 1-2 combo in America.  This team can comfortably go big or small and they should be the best offensive team in America.  Defense and foul trouble will be key as Kaminsky can't afford to pick up early fouls in the tournament.

NATIONAL CHAMPION FAVORITES THAT SHOULD NOT BE

Kentucky Wildcats (#1) - On paper, Kentucky has a ton of talent and clearly is the deepest team in America.  In reality, many of their pieces don't fit perfectly together.  Last year's squad benefited from the NCAA's quirky officiating emphasis during the tournament more than anyone else.  Assuming that was a one year fluke, the Wildcats will not be able to count on help from the refs like they did previously.  They don't have a true small forward anywhere on their roster, which is going to cause problems on both ends of the court.  And their star big man, Karl Towns, is more potential than production at this point.

Arizona Wildcats (#2) - I'm not anti-Wildcat, I swear.  As is the case with Kentucky, I question just how good Arizona's most hyped freshman will be for them.  I also question what this team will be able to hang its hat on.  Aaron Gordon was a swiss army knife for this team, giving them stellar defense at multiple positions along with heady offensive play and points that didn't take away from other teammate's offensive touches.  Nick Johnson's scoring ability and defense and leadership will all be missed at the 2 guard spot.  Arizona will be coached well and should secure a top seed in the tournament.  But they won't be able to rely on having the best defense/rebounding in the land.  Can the offense improve enough to overcome the loss of this suffocating strength?  I just don't see it.

BEST SLEEPER CONTENDER FOR THE NATIONAL TITLE

Louisville Cardinals (#8) - It's a stretch to peg any team outside the top 10 as a serious championship contender prior to the season.  I would be grasping at straws to project such a team to play that well.  Louisville is getting passed over by voters but that is a mistake.  While Louisville suffered significant losses, that was from a team that was arguably among the top 3-4 teams in America.  Louisville had the misfortune of losing earlier in the tournament but that loss came against national runner up Kentucky.  The Cardinals had been playing outstanding basketball up until that point.  Furthermore, don't discount the improvement that could be made by the returning players.  Point guard Terry Rozier played exceptionally well over the summer and should be an adequate replacement for star Russ Smith.  Center Mangok Mathiang has loads of upside as a defensive specialist and could help form the most intimidating defensive duo in the country with Montrezl Harrell.  Speaking of Harrell, the departure of Smith along with another year of development could see him make a leap offensively.  Better decision making from Chris Jones would be a boon to this team as well.  This is certainly a hopeful projection but don't be surprised if the talented Cardinals end up playing Wisconsin in the championship game.

BEST NBA PROSPECT

Jahlil Okafor (Duke) - I'm not exactly going out on a limb picking the consensus #1 prospect as my choice.  Rather, this is meant to get you excited about just how good Okafor can be.  My best comp for Okafor is a center version of Zach Randolph.  If that comparison proves to be true, Okafor will be a top 15 NBA player for years and years to come.  His game is built on being an incredibly skilled and savvy post scorer with an emerging jump shot.  Defense isn't his forte but given his size and basketball IQ, he shouldn't be a liability either.  Okafor's size will cause problems in an NBA that is devoid of true centers.  Check out Duke this season so you too can get excited about Okafor's NBA potential.

SLEEPER PICK FOR COLLEGE (AND NBA) STARDOM

Chris Walker (Florida) - It's easy to forget about Walker.  He wasn't as highly ranked in his high school class because 2013 was packed with top notch prospects.  And then Walker had the fiasco with trying to gain NCAA eligibility.  By the time that was resolved, Florida's rotation was set and there wasn't much room for such a raw player like Walker to earn playing time.  However, the things that made Walker such a tantalizing NBA prospect still exist.  His physical tools are Andrew Wiggins-esque.  He appears to have a good motor for a big man.  The questions now are how much weight he can put on his frame this off season and whether or not he gained enough experience in practice/games last season to play more like a sophomore this year than a freshman.  If he can put on significant weight without losing any athleticism, Walker will be as physically gifted as any NBA big man.

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